Target Price Playground
AAPL
$293.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 27.0% โ LOW
(-40.5% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Jul 17
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $295 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.88 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $315 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.73 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $330 by Jul 17: the bull call spread returns +$1,285 (179.7%) on $715 risked, vs +$3,668 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $29,332. Options give 14.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jul 17, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $330 by Jul 17
+$1,285
+179.7% on $715 risked
Max Profit
+$1,285
If the stock โฅ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$715
Net debit
Break-even
$302.15
+3.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
29%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.27 / -2.09 / 2.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Jun 1 | Jun 24 | Jul 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $235 (-20%) | -$684 | -$706 | -$715 | -$715 |
| $249 (-15%) | -$618 | -$671 | -$710 | -$715 |
| $264 (-10%) | -$480 | -$565 | -$670 | -$715 |
| $279 (-5%) | -$257 | -$346 | -$503 | -$715 |
| $287 (-2%) | -$88 | -$158 | -$301 | -$715 |
| $293 (0%) โ spot | +$34 | -$15 | -$124 | -$715 |
| $299 (+2%) | +$161 | +$136 | +$78 | -$296 |
| $308 (+5%) | +$350 | +$365 | +$396 | +$584 |
| $323 (+10%) | +$641 | +$711 | +$851 | +$1,285 |
| $330 (+13%) โ target | +$766 | +$852 | +$1,010 | +$1,285 |
| $337 (+15%) | +$874 | +$967 | +$1,121 | +$1,285 |
| $352 (+20%) | +$1,039 | +$1,126 | +$1,234 | +$1,285 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.