AFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFL - Aflac Inc.
$110.95
0.44 (0.40%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.13
Based on 0.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFL is currently trading at $110.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.61 to $110.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $111.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$108.61 -
$110.91
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.85)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 60.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$108.61 -
$110.91
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.32
Resistance Level
$111.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$110.85
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.2%
Profit Margin
23.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 14.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.95
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$111.40
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$111.84
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$110.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -3.9%)
$144.79
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: -3.9%)
$98.02
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: -3.9%)
$83.32
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$115.25
(+4%)
Analyst growth -3.8%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$104.77
(-6%)
Market implied -3.8%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$74.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph L Moskowitz
SELL
1000 shares
2025-08-08
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AFL price and gamma walls.
