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AHCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AHCO - AdaptHealth Corp. Common Stock

SERVICES-HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES
$11.29
0.09 (0.80%) ▲
5d: +8.87%
30d: +23.39%
90d: +10.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your AHCO Gains
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

AHCO is up 13.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 11,008 OI. Put ratio: 97% View Scanner →

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AHCO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.11
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.35
21.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AHCO is currently trading at $11.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.37 to $10.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AHCO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.81, while resistance sits at $11.75.

Market Sentiment: AHCO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.88 (+14.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $9.37 - $10.83
Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 59.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.88)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $9.37 - $10.83
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $9.81
Resistance Level $11.75
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.08
Wall Street Target $12.88 (+14.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.7%
Profit Margin -2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 9.1 vs 9.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $11.08 (-2%)
2-Year Target $10.87 (-4%)
3-Year Target $10.66 (-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→10) $11.27 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 24.7%) $53.86 (+377%)
Base: (SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 24.7%) $21.87 (+94%)
Bear: (PE: 7.7, Growth: 24.7%) $18.59 (+65%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.6
Stabilization Target: $11.94 (+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +5.8%
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Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check

Is AHCO showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Richard M Cashin Jr BUY 689336 shares 2026-03-12
Richard M Cashin Jr BUY 536827 shares 2026-03-11
Richard M Cashin Jr BUY 820528 shares 2026-03-10

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Advanced AHCO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AHCO price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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