AYI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AYI - Acuity Inc.
$269.61
-0.08 (-0.03%)
▼
5d:
-3.45%
30d:
-10.6%
90d:
-27.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 02, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
AYI is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $300 2026-05-15 with 32 OI. Call ratio: 86% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AYI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AYI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$457.78
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$284.24
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AYI is currently trading at $269.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $264.90 to $297.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AYI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $261.10, while resistance sits at $286.43.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $382.50 (+41.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AYI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $261.10, while resistance sits at $286.43.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (22th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $382.50 (+41.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$264.90 -
$297.59
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
22th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 22th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.8% below Wall St target ($382.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$264.90 -
$297.59
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.93
(6.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$261.10
Resistance Level
$286.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.46
Wall Street Target
$382.50
(+41.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$252.16
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$235.77
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$220.44
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$268.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$639.26
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$355.61
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 9.7%)
$302.27
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.99
Bull Case
$491.80
(+76%)
Analyst growth 66.9%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$447.09
(+60%)
Market implied 66.9%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$182.15
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$328.98
(+22.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AYI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Karen J Holcom
SELL
4974 shares
2026-01-28
Barry R Goldman
SELL
4489 shares
2025-10-28
Barry R Goldman
SELL
4687 shares
2025-10-24
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Advanced AYI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AYI price and gamma walls.