HAYW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HAYW - Hayward Holdings, Inc.
$16.14
-0.16 (-0.98%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HAYW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HAYW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.92
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HAYW is currently trading at $16.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.83 to $16.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HAYW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HAYW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$15.83 -
$16.58
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.83 -
$16.58
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.87
Resistance Level
$16.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.26
Wall Street Target
$17.86
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.1%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.43
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.56
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.69
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$25.96
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$22.42
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$19.06
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$24.47
(+52%)
Analyst growth 36.5%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$22.25
(+38%)
Market implied 36.5%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$11.08
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HAYW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Holleran
SELL
60571 shares
2025-10-01
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Eifion Jones
SELL
20000 shares
2025-08-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HAYW price and gamma walls.
