HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$467.83
-4.02 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-5.41%
30d:
-11.68%
90d:
-1.95%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 24, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
HCA is down 4.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $540 2026-06-18 with 406 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$731.54
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$454.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $467.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $510.34 to $542.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $468.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $543.05 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $468.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $543.05 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$510.34 -
$542.73
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($543.05)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$510.34 -
$542.73
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$468.08
Resistance Level
$529.80
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.06
Wall Street Target
$543.05
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.5%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 15.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$450.05
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$432.95
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$416.50
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$468.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$982.27
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 9.7%)
$617.94
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 9.7%)
$525.24
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.35
Bull Case
$637.61
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.4%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$579.65
(+17%)
Market implied 17.4%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$335.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$525.72
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
Christopher F Wyatt
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-11
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Advanced HCA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCA price and gamma walls.
