HRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

HRTX - Heron Therapeutics, Inc.

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$0.77
-0.01 (-1.79%) ▼
5d: -3.74%
30d: -35.32%
90d: -39.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HRTX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.29
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.80
3.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HRTX is currently trading at $0.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $0.84 to $1.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.5) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $0.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: HRTX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.33 (+452.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range $0.84 - $1.16
Company Quality Score 47/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 452.9% below Wall St target ($4.33)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $0.84 - $1.16
Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $0.75
Resistance Level $0.93
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Mar 27, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 1.54
Wall Street Target $4.33 (+452.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -0.5%
Profit Margin -13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical 1.5 vs 1.8 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -5.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $0.74 (-6%)
2-Year Target $0.70 (-11%)
3-Year Target $0.66 (-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 2→2) $0.77 (-2%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.8
Stabilization Target: $0.92 (+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential: +17.1%
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Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:08 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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