LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$16.63
-0.63 (-3.65%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.60
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $16.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.40 to $17.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.0) is in line with its historical norms (2.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.71, while resistance sits at $17.55. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.92 (+38.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.71, while resistance sits at $17.55. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.92 (+38.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$16.40 -
$17.21
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 38.6% below Wall St target ($23.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with -36.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.40 -
$17.21
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.71
Resistance Level
$17.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.98
Wall Street Target
$23.92
(+38.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-36.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
3.0 vs 2.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.71
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$18.17
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$18.64
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
PE COMPRESSION
$17.51
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 179.2%)
$435.68
(+2424%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.0, Growth: 179.2%)
$58.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.5, Growth: 179.2%)
$49.51
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.10
Bull Case
$37.73
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$34.30
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$11.66
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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