MFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFC - Manulife Financial Corp.
$38.38
0.27 (0.71%)
▲
5d:
+3.39%
30d:
+5.79%
90d:
+19.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.31
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFC is currently trading at $38.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.53 to $37.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.53. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.53. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$36.53 -
$37.73
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.2% above Wall St target ($32.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.53 -
$37.73
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.31
Resistance Level
$38.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.45
Wall Street Target
$32.53
(-15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.03
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$39.70
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$40.37
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.21
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$132.76
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 9.5%)
$50.32
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 9.5%)
$42.78
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$83.84
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$76.22
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$25.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 2:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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