MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$33.54
0.20 (0.60%)
ā²
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: MGM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: MGM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.18
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $33.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.73 to $36.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.14, while resistance sits at $35.23.
Market Sentiment: MGM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.50 (+24.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.14, while resistance sits at $35.23.
Market Sentiment: MGM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.50 (+24.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.73 -
$36.56
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MGM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.5% below Wall St target ($41.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.73 -
$36.56
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.14
Resistance Level
$35.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.42
Wall Street Target
$41.50
(+24.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.1%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.94
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$32.54
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$32.15
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15ā16)
$33.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -4.4%)
$42.19
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: -4.4%)
$29.17
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: -4.4%)
$24.79
(-26%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.66 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.29
Bull Case
$40.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$33.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$25.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$34.60
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
John Mcmanus
SELL
60000 shares
2025-09-15
Keith A Meister
SELL
242000 shares
2025-09-11
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