TRN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRN - Trinity Industries, Inc.
$28.74
0.04 (0.14%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.44
Based on -21.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRN is currently trading at $28.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.01 to $28.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $28.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $28.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TRN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$27.01 -
$28.55
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TRN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.01 -
$28.55
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.44
Resistance Level
$28.90
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.39
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(-0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.64
(0%)
2-Year Target
$28.59
(0%)
3-Year Target
$28.53
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$28.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -47.2%)
$26.82
(+-7%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -47.2%)
$20.92
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: -47.2%)
$17.78
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$41.41
(+44%)
Analyst growth 34.1%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$37.64
(+31%)
Market implied 34.1%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$19.08
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$28.88
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TRN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TRN price and gamma walls.
