ACIW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACIW - ACI Worldwide, Inc.
$43.36
0.16 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-9.89%
90d:
-8.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACIW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACIW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.09
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.14
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACIW is currently trading at $43.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.42 to $47.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIW is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.86, while resistance sits at $45.28.
Market Sentiment: ACIW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.20 (+45.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIW is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.86, while resistance sits at $45.28.
Market Sentiment: ACIW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $63.20 (+45.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$43.42 -
$47.18
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.8% below Wall St target ($63.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$43.42 -
$47.18
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.62
(6.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.86
Resistance Level
$45.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.84
Wall Street Target
$63.20
(+45.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.49
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$41.64
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$40.81
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$43.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$112.84
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 14.4%)
$64.99
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 14.4%)
$55.24
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.47
Bull Case
$65.40
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.7%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$59.46
(+37%)
Market implied 36.7%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$29.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$45.91
(+5.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.9%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 7:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACIW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-08-19
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