ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$26.19
0.62 (2.42%)
▲
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
-9.69%
90d:
+3.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.01
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $26.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.77 to $28.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.3) is in line with its historical norms (60.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.50, while resistance sits at $27.08.
Market Sentiment: ARQT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.75 (+21.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.50, while resistance sits at $27.08.
Market Sentiment: ARQT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.75 (+21.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$25.77 -
$28.85
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($31.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.77 -
$28.85
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.50
Resistance Level
$27.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
57.30
Wall Street Target
$31.75
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
121.7%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
57.3 vs 60.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.67
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$25.15
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$24.65
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→61)
$26.20
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 57.3 to 60.9
Stabilization Target:
$27.84
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Last updated: February 04, 2026 3:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
4504 shares
2025-10-02
Todd Watanabe
SELL
20739 shares
2025-10-02
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2025-10-01
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