AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$15.22
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+4.46%
30d:
-0.85%
90d:
+15.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
AUPH is up 3.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $15 2026-04-17 with 151 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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6 traders called AUPH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.60
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.90
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $15.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.67 to $15.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$14.67 -
$15.65
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.67 -
$15.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.06
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.35
Resistance Level
$15.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.45
Wall Street Target
$16.67
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
130.0%
Profit Margin
29.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 16.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.25
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$15.28
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$15.31
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.3%)
$34.18
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 18.3%)
$25.22
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 18.3%)
$21.44
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.56
Bull Case
$26.40
(+74%)
Analyst growth 65.2%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$24.00
(+58%)
Market implied 65.2%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$9.88
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 11:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
