AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$13.98
-0.29 (-2.03%)
▼
5d:
-3.98%
30d:
-1.34%
90d:
-13.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AUPH is down 4.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $16 2026-05-15 with 91 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AUPH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AUPH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.19
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.91
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $13.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.08 to $14.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.08 -
$14.66
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.08 -
$14.66
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.85
Resistance Level
$15.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.74
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15073.2%
Profit Margin
101.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 16.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.08
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$14.18
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$14.28
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$18.66
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 0.0%)
$13.98
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 0.0%)
$11.88
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.07
Bull Case
$7.71
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$7.01
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$9.53
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
