AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$4.40
0.14 (3.29%)
▲
5d:
+4.76%
30d:
+16.4%
90d:
+3.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.72
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.80
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $4.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.92 to $4.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $4.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $4.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3.92 -
$4.35
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($4.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.92 -
$4.35
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.01
Resistance Level
$4.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.16
Wall Street Target
$4.00
(-9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.4%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$4.20
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$4.10
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$4.37
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.2%)
$19.37
(+340%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 17.2%)
$7.07
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 17.2%)
$6.01
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$6.63
(+56%)
Analyst growth 45.6%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$6.03
(+42%)
Market implied 45.6%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$2.82
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$4.69
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 8:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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