AVAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAL - GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A.
$4.81
-0.30 (-5.87%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AVAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.71
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.41
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAL is currently trading at $4.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.05 to $4.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.23, while resistance sits at $5.28. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $3.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.23, while resistance sits at $5.28. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $3.20. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$4.05 -
$4.80
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading 33.5% above Wall St target ($3.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.05 -
$4.80
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.23
Resistance Level
$5.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.09
Wall Street Target
$3.20
(-33.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.90
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$4.99
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$5.09
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.79
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.4%)
$20.46
(+325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 24.4%)
$9.26
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 24.4%)
$7.87
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.38
Bull Case
$6.95
(+45%)
Analyst growth 25.4%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$6.32
(+31%)
Market implied 25.4%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$3.43
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAL price and gamma walls.
