AWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWK - American Water Works Company, Inc
$129.13
0.13 (0.10%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$169.82
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$105.45
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWK is currently trading at $129.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.76 to $132.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (21.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AWK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$128.76 -
$132.04
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AWK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$128.76 -
$132.04
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.36
Resistance Level
$133.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.14
Wall Street Target
$141.55
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 21.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$127.46
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$126.69
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$128.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.6%)
$164.65
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$156.07
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$132.66
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.69
Bull Case
$149.88
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$136.26
(+6%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$86.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.1 to 21.5
Stabilization Target:
$131.20
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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