AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$72.96
0.62 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
-0.27%
30d:
-0.21%
90d:
+0.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
15d
Get Alerted When AWR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.98
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $72.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.29 to $74.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.9) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $71.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.00 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $71.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.00 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$72.29 -
$74.71
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$72.29 -
$74.71
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.86
(2.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.85
Resistance Level
$76.37
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.91
Wall Street Target
$81.00
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.74
(0%)
2-Year Target
$72.52
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$72.31
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$72.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$90.40
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 5.1%)
$84.75
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.8, Growth: 5.1%)
$72.04
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.38
Bull Case
$82.04
(+12%)
Analyst growth 3.3%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$74.58
(+2%)
Market implied 3.3%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$49.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$73.64
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 3:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Utilities - Regulated Water by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WTRG
Essential Utilities Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$43 | 53 HOLD |
|
SBS
Companhia de Saneamento … |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$30 | 54 HOLD |
|
CWT
California Water Service… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$52 | 54 HOLD |
|
AWK
American Water Works |
SELL
15 analysts |
$140 | 54 HOLD |
|
HTO
H2O America |
BUY
5 analysts |
- | 55 HOLD |
