AX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AX - Axos Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$85.02
2.14 (2.58%)
▲
5d:
+0.65%
30d:
-4.97%
90d:
-2.93%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.8% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.39
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.90
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AX is currently trading at $85.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.84 to $90.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.33 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $86.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.33 (+33.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$82.84 -
$90.94
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.1% below Wall St target ($110.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$82.84 -
$90.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.64
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.03
Resistance Level
$86.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.42
Wall Street Target
$110.33
(+33.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Profit Margin
36.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.90
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$75.11
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$71.51
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$83.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$321.59
(+288%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$121.15
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$102.97
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.88
Bull Case
$114.65
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.7%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$104.23
(+24%)
Market implied 25.7%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$56.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$96.47
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 2:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derrick Walsh
SELL
4846 shares
2026-02-06
James John Court
SELL
11163 shares
2026-02-06
Gregory Garrabrants
SELL
43294 shares
2026-02-04
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