BCAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BCAL - California BanCorp Common Stock
$17.99
-0.09 (-0.50%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BCAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BCAL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.06
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.18
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BCAL is currently trading at $17.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.38 to $18.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BCAL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BCAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BCAL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+19.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.38 -
$18.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BCAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.38 -
$18.91
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.71
Resistance Level
$19.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.99
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Profit Margin
33.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.54
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$17.10
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$16.67
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$18.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$50.72
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 8.1%)
$22.73
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$19.32
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.17
Bull Case
$17.10
(-5%)
Analyst growth -15.4%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$15.55
(-14%)
Market implied -15.4%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$12.49
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.44
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BCAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BCAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BCAL price and gamma walls.
