BFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$136.99
0.84 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
+3.28%
30d:
-1.55%
90d:
+12.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.65
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.58
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $136.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.77 to $138.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.00 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $138.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.00 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$132.77 -
$138.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($155.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$132.77 -
$138.01
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.81
Resistance Level
$138.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.74
Wall Street Target
$155.00
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
41.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.31
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$135.62
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$134.95
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$136.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 4.7%)
$253.71
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$157.10
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 4.7%)
$133.53
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.24
Bull Case
$212.95
(+61%)
Analyst growth 48.5%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$193.59
(+46%)
Market implied 48.5%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$88.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$138.74
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 11:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven M Eldred
SELL
8000 shares
2026-02-11
Steven M Eldred
SELL
8000 shares
2026-02-06
Todd A Sprang
BUY
150 shares
2026-01-27
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