BTSG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTSG - BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$41.54
-0.79 (-1.87%)
▼
5d:
-1.33%
30d:
+0.27%
90d:
+10.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
30d
Smart Money Distribution
BTSG is up 7.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $30 2026-05-15 with 1 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BTSG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 338% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BTSG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 338% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.69
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.79
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTSG is currently trading at $41.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.98 to $42.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (27.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 338.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.36, while resistance sits at $45.59.
Market Sentiment: BTSG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.60 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.36, while resistance sits at $45.59.
Market Sentiment: BTSG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.60 (+26.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$39.98 -
$42.88
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($52.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.98 -
$42.88
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.36
Resistance Level
$45.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.36
Wall Street Target
$52.60
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
338.3%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 27.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.42
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$35.54
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$32.88
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$41.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.2%)
$85.40
(+106%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 25.2%)
$81.61
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 25.2%)
$69.37
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.65 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.04
Bull Case
$50.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.7
Base Case
$42.10
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.7
Bear Case
$32.21
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 27.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.51
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTSG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer A Phipps
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-04
Jon B Rousseau
SELL
220000 shares
2026-03-04
Lisa A Nalley
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced BTSG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BTSG price and gamma walls.
