BTSG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTSG - BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$39.27
-0.56 (-1.41%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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1 traders called BTSG this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTSG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTSG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.35
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTSG is currently trading at $39.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.98 to $39.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.4) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.01, while resistance sits at $40.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.13 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.01, while resistance sits at $40.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.13 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$37.98 -
$39.70
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.98 -
$39.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.01
Resistance Level
$40.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.42
Wall Street Target
$44.13
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.3%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.90
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$40.54
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$41.19
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 29.2%)
$84.75
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 29.2%)
$64.24
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 29.2%)
$54.60
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.04
Bull Case
$47.42
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.6
Base Case
$39.27
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$30.04
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTSG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jon B Rousseau
SELL
235000 shares
2025-10-22
Lisa A Nalley
SELL
20000 shares
2025-10-22
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