CERT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CERT - Certara, Inc. Common Stock
$8.79
-0.47 (-5.08%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CERT is down 12.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CERT is down 12.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.66
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.35
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CERT is currently trading at $8.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.92 to $9.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CERT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.38 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CERT is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.74. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.38 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.92 -
$9.71
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CERT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($12.38)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 10.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.92 -
$9.71
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.75
Resistance Level
$10.21
Current Trend
Support Break
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.96
Wall Street Target
$12.38
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.1%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 16.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.28
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.30
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$9.32
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.23
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.7%)
$21.97
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$16.71
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 21.7%)
$14.20
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 18.35 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.48
Bull Case
$10.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$8.79
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$6.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CERT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Leif E Pedersen
SELL
51224 shares
2025-09-09
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