CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$180.21
0.70 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-2.44%
30d:
-2.88%
90d:
-9.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHKP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHKP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.95
Based on -1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.77
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $180.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $179.76 to $189.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 78.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.56, while resistance sits at $186.59.
Market Sentiment: CHKP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.71 (+23.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.56, while resistance sits at $186.59.
Market Sentiment: CHKP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.71 (+23.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$179.76 -
$189.25
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHKP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($222.71)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$179.76 -
$189.25
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.56
Resistance Level
$186.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.18
Wall Street Target
$222.71
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
78.9%
Profit Margin
37.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 17.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$176.27
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$174.33
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$179.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -6.9%)
$188.82
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: -6.9%)
$145.45
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: -6.9%)
$123.63
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.17
Bull Case
$225.90
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.4%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$205.37
(+14%)
Market implied 14.4%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$122.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$185.69
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 11:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHKP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHKP price and gamma walls.
