DBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DBX - Dropbox, Inc. Class A
$25.48
-0.35 (-1.36%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.60
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DBX is currently trading at $25.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.12 to $27.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.57 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.57 (+10.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.12 -
$27.75
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.57)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.12 -
$27.75
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.42
Resistance Level
$26.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.65
Wall Street Target
$28.57
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.5%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$24.66
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$24.09
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$25.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.2%)
$79.84
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 6.2%)
$30.98
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 6.2%)
$26.33
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$49.50
(+92%)
Analyst growth 69.6%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$45.00
(+74%)
Market implied 69.6%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$18.04
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$27.76
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sarah Elizabeth Schubach
SELL
1066 shares
2025-10-15
Timothy Regan
SELL
1500 shares
2025-10-15
Andrew Houston
SELL
101167 shares
2025-10-01
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DBX price and gamma walls.
