ESP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESP - Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp
$56.30
0.08 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.81%
30d:
-2.81%
90d:
+24.15%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.27
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.15
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESP is currently trading at $56.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.12 to $58.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$55.12 -
$58.40
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($64.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.12 -
$58.40
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.20
Resistance Level
$57.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.49
Wall Street Target
$64.00
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.4%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.49
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$54.77
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$54.06
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$56.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 1.1%)
$84.06
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 1.1%)
$58.12
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 1.1%)
$49.40
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.45
Bull Case
$61.93
(+13%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$56.30
(+3%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$36.39
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$58.44
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:35 PM
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