EXEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXEL - Exelixis Inc
$41.36
-0.92 (-2.18%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
EXEL is down 6.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-03-20 with 368 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
Get Alerted When EXEL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.43
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.87
1.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXEL is currently trading at $41.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.00 to $45.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXEL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.78 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXEL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.78 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$43.00 -
$45.65
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EXEL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.78)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$43.00 -
$45.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.76
Resistance Level
$45.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.31
Wall Street Target
$45.78
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.5%
Profit Margin
29.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.45
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$39.56
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$38.69
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$41.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$109.71
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$60.58
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 13.6%)
$51.49
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.38
Bull Case
$66.23
(+60%)
Analyst growth 41.1%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$60.21
(+46%)
Market implied 41.1%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$29.01
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$44.34
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is EXEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Biotechnology Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Biotechnology by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$22 | 60 HOLD |
|
ARGX
argenx NV ADR |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$1035 | 58 HOLD |
|
CRSP
Crispr Therapeutics AG |
BUY
28 analysts |
$83 | 57 HOLD |
|
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics Inc |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$33 | 60 HOLD |
|
MRUS
Merus BV |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$97 | 55 HOLD |
Advanced EXEL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXEL price and gamma walls.
