FFIV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIV - F5, Inc. Common Stock
$275.61
-6.92 (-2.45%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.22
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIV is currently trading at $275.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $258.45 to $273.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $257.18, while resistance sits at $303.98.
Market Sentiment: FFIV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.30 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $257.18, while resistance sits at $303.98.
Market Sentiment: FFIV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $310.30 (+12.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$258.45 -
$273.44
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($310.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$258.45 -
$273.44
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$257.18
Resistance Level
$303.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.41
Wall Street Target
$310.30
(+12.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$277.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$280.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$282.28
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$275.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.3%)
$436.79
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$321.47
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$273.25
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.09
Bull Case
$445.14
(+62%)
Analyst growth 38.4%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$404.67
(+47%)
Market implied 38.4%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$198.76
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francois Locoh-Donou
SELL
1300 shares
2025-10-01
Lyra Amber Schramm
SELL
2701 shares
2025-09-08
Chad Michael Whalen
SELL
5297 shares
2025-08-11
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