FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$7.84
-0.29 (-3.57%)
▼
5d:
-4.27%
30d:
-11.01%
90d:
+55.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 02, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FGBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FGBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
36.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $7.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.19 to $8.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: FGBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: FGBI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$8.19 -
$8.95
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.19 -
$8.95
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.83
Resistance Level
$8.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.06
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 15.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.20
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$6.61
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$6.07
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→16)
$7.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$49.03
(+525%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 62.5%)
$26.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 62.5%)
$22.49
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$10.14
(+29.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
208996 shares
2025-12-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
46297 shares
2025-12-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
92600 shares
2025-12-31
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