FINW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FINW - FinWise Bancorp Common
$17.51
-0.94 (-5.09%)
▼
5d:
-3.63%
30d:
-0.79%
90d:
-1.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FINW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FINW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.99
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.35
21.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FINW is currently trading at $17.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.61 to $18.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 36.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FINW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.67 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FINW is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.67 (+29.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$17.61 -
$18.19
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($22.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.61 -
$18.19
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.23
Resistance Level
$18.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.36
Wall Street Target
$22.67
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
36.0%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.35
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$15.27
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$14.27
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$17.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.8%)
$76.35
(+336%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$28.64
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 17.8%)
$24.34
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$33.95
(+94%)
Analyst growth 69.2%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$30.86
(+76%)
Market implied 69.2%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$12.40
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$21.56
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 10:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FINW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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