FOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$59.04
-0.36 (-0.61%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FOUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FOUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.64
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.01
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $59.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.08 to $66.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.83 (+49.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $88.83 (+49.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$62.08 -
$66.40
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FOUR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.5% below Wall St target ($88.83)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-10.8%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$62.08 -
$66.40
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.44
Resistance Level
$66.92
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.11
Wall Street Target
$88.83
(+49.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.5%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.50
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$55.66
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$53.88
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$59.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 24.5%)
$280.89
(+373%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 24.5%)
$114.76
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 24.5%)
$97.55
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$131.96
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$119.96
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$40.79
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$65.20
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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2500 shares
2025-09-03
James J Whalen
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794 shares
2025-08-15
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2025-08-11
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Advanced FOUR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FOUR price and gamma walls.
