FXNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FXNC - FIRST NATL CORP STRASBURG VA
$26.35
0.59 (2.29%)
▲
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FXNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FXNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.35
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.05
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FXNC is currently trading at $26.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.99 to $26.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FXNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.35, while resistance sits at $27.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FXNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.35, while resistance sits at $27.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$24.99 -
$26.01
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FXNC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($23.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.99 -
$26.01
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.35
Resistance Level
$27.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.96
Wall Street Target
$23.75
(-7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
68.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.5%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.97
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$26.17
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$26.38
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.0%)
$81.90
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 16.0%)
$40.26
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 16.0%)
$34.22
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$56.17
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$51.06
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$17.36
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FXNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FXNC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FXNC price and gamma walls.
