GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$50.42
0.46 (0.92%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.24
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.03
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $50.42, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.08 to $50.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (17th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$47.08 -
$50.59
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
17th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 17th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($49.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with -19.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$47.08 -
$50.59
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.99
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.67
Resistance Level
$51.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.14
Wall Street Target
$49.67
(-0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.7%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.81
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$53.73
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$55.71
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.00
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.9%)
$129.14
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 8.9%)
$64.53
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 8.9%)
$54.85
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.77
Bull Case
$42.21
(-16%)
Analyst growth -22.3%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$38.37
(-24%)
Market implied -22.3%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$33.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
James R Huffines
BUY
2500 shares
2025-08-08
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Advanced GBX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GBX price and gamma walls.
