GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$8.34
-0.06 (-0.71%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GNW shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.74
Based on 12.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.77
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $8.34, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.30 to $9.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.5) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.00 (+19.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.30 -
$9.07
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.30 -
$9.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.02
Resistance Level
$8.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.53
Wall Street Target
$10.00
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.3%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$8.12
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$8.02
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$8.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 21.6%)
$18.05
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 21.6%)
$15.00
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 21.6%)
$12.75
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$6.85
(-18%)
Analyst growth -23.7%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$6.23
(-25%)
Market implied -23.7%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$5.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$8.68
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rohit Gupta
SELL
86406 shares
2025-08-27
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