GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$8.06
0.07 (0.88%)
▲
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
-4.5%
90d:
-11.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.17
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $8.06, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.04 to $8.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+31.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+31.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$8.04 -
$8.55
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.4% below Wall St target ($10.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.04 -
$8.55
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.84
Resistance Level
$8.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.02
Wall Street Target
$10.50
(+31.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.3%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$7.97
(0%)
3-Year Target
$7.97
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$8.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$13.76
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.5%)
$11.69
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$9.93
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$7.32
(-10%)
Analyst growth -16.7%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$6.66
(-18%)
Market implied -16.7%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$5.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$8.02
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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