GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$8.39
0.20 (2.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.96%
30d:
-1.99%
90d:
-7.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GNW shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.20
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $8.39, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.04 to $8.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+25.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GNW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.50 (+25.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$8.04 -
$8.47
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($10.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$8.04 -
$8.47
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.84
Resistance Level
$8.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.64
Wall Street Target
$10.50
(+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.3%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$8.27
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$8.22
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$8.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 7.1%)
$11.39
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 7.1%)
$10.32
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 7.1%)
$8.77
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.54
Bull Case
$7.32
(-10%)
Analyst growth -16.7%, PE expands to 16.3
Base Case
$6.66
(-18%)
Market implied -16.7%, PE stable at 14.8
Bear Case
$5.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.6 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$8.55
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 3:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:33 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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