HBNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HBNC - Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$17.62
0.13 (0.74%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HBNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.21
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.03
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HBNC is currently trading at $17.62, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.91 to $17.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.05, while resistance sits at $19.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HBNC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.05, while resistance sits at $19.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$16.91 -
$17.80
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($21.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.91 -
$17.80
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.63
(3.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.05
Resistance Level
$19.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.99
Wall Street Target
$21.20
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
218.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.14
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$16.80
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$16.46
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.8%)
$59.54
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$21.32
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$18.13
(+4%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.61
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HBNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John R Stewart
BUY
1724 shares
2025-08-22
Michele Annette Samuels
BUY
1724 shares
2025-08-22
Thomas M Prame
BUY
1034 shares
2025-08-22
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Advanced HBNC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HBNC price and gamma walls.
