HOMB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOMB - Home BancShares, Inc.
$28.90
-0.04 (-0.14%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HOMB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HOMB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.73
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.42
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOMB is currently trading at $28.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.10 to $28.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOMB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $28.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.38 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOMB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $28.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.38 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$28.10 -
$28.88
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HOMB? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($33.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.10 -
$28.88
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.14
Resistance Level
$29.79
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.95
Wall Street Target
$33.38
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Profit Margin
44.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.59
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$28.25
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$27.91
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$29.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.2%)
$68.62
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$33.70
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 5.2%)
$28.64
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.35
Bull Case
$35.02
(+21%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$31.84
(+10%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$19.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$30.13
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOMB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John W Allison
SELL
110000 shares
2025-08-26
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