HRMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HRMY - Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$27.74
-0.22 (-0.79%)
▼
5d:
+1.09%
30d:
-2.8%
90d:
-25.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
HRMY is down 4.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-05-15 with 107 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
Get Alerted When HRMY Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRMY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HRMY trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.91
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.44
27.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HRMY is currently trading at $27.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.39 to $28.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.8) compared to its historical average (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.34, while resistance sits at $28.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.00 (+51.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HRMY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.34, while resistance sits at $28.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.00 (+51.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$27.39 -
$28.62
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.4% below Wall St target ($42.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.39 -
$28.62
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.15
(11.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.34
Resistance Level
$28.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.79
Wall Street Target
$42.00
(+51.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.0%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.8 vs 6.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.66
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$23.74
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$21.95
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$27.50
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 20.8%)
$210.07
(+657%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.8, Growth: 20.8%)
$48.91
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.1, Growth: 20.8%)
$41.58
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.71
Bull Case
$60.98
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$55.44
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$18.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.8 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$34.75
(+25.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 06, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HRMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sandip Kapadia
SELL
3746 shares
2026-01-26
Sandip Kapadia
SELL
20961 shares
2026-01-15
Jeffrey M Dayno
SELL
25933 shares
2025-12-12
Top Rated Biotechnology Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Biotechnology by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BMRN
Biomarin Pharmaceutical … |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$89 | 65 BUY |
|
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$21 | 56 HOLD |
|
LEGN
Legend Biotech Corp |
STRONG BUY
22 analysts |
$58 | 57 HOLD |
|
CRSP
Crispr Therapeutics AG |
BUY
28 analysts |
$84 | 61 BUY |
|
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals I… |
BUY
34 analysts |
$547 | 50 HOLD |
Advanced HRMY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HRMY price and gamma walls.
