INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$100.07
-1.01 (-1.00%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$162.83
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.10
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $100.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.14 to $105.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 290.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$100.14 -
$105.97
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($102.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$100.14 -
$105.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.85
Resistance Level
$108.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.83
Wall Street Target
$102.33
(+1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
290.7%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.17
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$99.27
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$98.38
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$101.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.9%)
$266.65
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 14.9%)
$153.42
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$130.41
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$151.97
(+50%)
Analyst growth 33.5%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$138.16
(+37%)
Market implied 33.5%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$70.36
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$103.99
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sheila A Denton
SELL
277 shares
2025-10-15
Sheila A Denton
SELL
278 shares
2025-09-16
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