INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$91.35
1.05 (1.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.0%
30d:
-9.8%
90d:
-8.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
INCY is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $95 2026-04-17 with 80 OI. Call ratio: 75% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.5% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.5% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.76
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.51
15.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $91.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $92.18 to $100.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (12.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.14 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $89.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.14 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$92.18 -
$100.38
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$92.18 -
$100.38
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.25
Resistance Level
$94.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.44
Wall Street Target
$107.14
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.6%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 12.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.33
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$80.64
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$76.20
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$90.50
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 16.7%)
$307.62
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 16.7%)
$143.39
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 16.7%)
$121.88
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.41
Bull Case
$134.73
(+49%)
Analyst growth 34.9%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$122.48
(+35%)
Market implied 34.9%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$61.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 12.4
Stabilization Target:
$107.24
(+18.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-29
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SELL
10856 shares
2026-01-07
Thomas Tray
SELL
2774 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced INCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
