Is IOT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, IOT is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: IOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of IOT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for IOT to be between $28.03 and $33.45. The current price is $30.62.

What is the analyst price target for IOT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for IOT is $44.17. This implies a potential upside of 48.5% from current levels.

IOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

IOT - Samsara Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN

$30.62

0.87 (2.92%) ▲

5d: -7.77%

30d: +5.95%

90d: -16.06%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your IOT Gains

Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jun 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

IOT is down 10.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $47 2026-06-18 with 1,912 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →

Strength: 6.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IOT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 17.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$24.26

Based on 10.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.07

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: IOT is currently trading at $30.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.03 to $33.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 51.2) compared to its historical average (74.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, IOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.64, while resistance sits at $34.70.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.17 (+48.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Fair Price Range $28.03 - $33.45

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 48.5% below Wall St target ($44.17)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.8% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $28.03 - $33.45

Current vs Fair Value FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $29.64

Resistance Level $34.70

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 51.17

Wall Street Target $44.17 (+48.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 28.3%

Profit Margin -0.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -11.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 51.2 vs 74.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -11.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $26.78 (-10%)

2-Year Target $24.10 (-19%)

3-Year Target $21.69 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 51→75) $31.70 (+7%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 51.2, Growth: 17.8%) $48.68 (+64%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.8%) $21.31 (-28%)

Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.8%) $18.11 (-39%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.2 to 74.8

Stabilization Target: $43.49 (+46.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +46.2%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Dominic Phillips SELL 17808 shares 2026-03-05

Adam Eltoukhy SELL 4688 shares 2026-02-20

Benjamin Louis Kirchhoff SELL 1731 shares 2026-02-17

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