KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$76.17
-2.61 (-3.31%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KSPI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211368.18
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131243.01
99.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $76.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.28 to $81.22. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $73.78, while resistance sits at $80.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.98 (+38.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $73.78, while resistance sits at $80.99. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.98 (+38.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$77.28 -
$81.22
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 38.3% below Wall St target ($108.98)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$77.28 -
$81.22
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.78
Resistance Level
$80.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$108.98
(+38.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
73.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Profit Margin
30.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.21
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$69.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$65.85
(-16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$228986.45
(+290566%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 15.6%)
$121.73
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 15.6%)
$103.47
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.37
Bull Case
$177.01
(+132%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$160.92
(+111%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$54.71
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Advanced KSPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KSPI price and gamma walls.