KSPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KSPI - Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz American Depository Shares
$72.64
1.77 (2.49%)
▲
5d:
-1.45%
30d:
+2.9%
90d:
-7.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KSPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KSPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$273047.15
Based on 14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$169540.80
100.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KSPI is currently trading at $72.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.27 to $74.62. Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $70.41, while resistance sits at $76.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.37 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KSPI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $70.41, while resistance sits at $76.41.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.37 (+40.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$71.27 -
$74.62
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($99.37)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$71.27 -
$74.62
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.90
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.41
Resistance Level
$76.41
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.01
Wall Street Target
$99.37
(+40.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.04
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$65.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$62.70
(-12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 24.0%)
$306000.89
(+431678%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.0, Growth: 24.0%)
$135.23
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.0, Growth: 24.0%)
$114.94
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.51
Bull Case
$158.77
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$144.34
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$49.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 PM
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