LYG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LYG - Lloyds Banking Group PLC
$5.97
0.05 (0.84%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LYG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LYG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.28
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.38
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LYG is currently trading at $5.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.31 to $5.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LYG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $6.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LYG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$5.31 -
$5.69
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
LYG is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 15.5% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with 5.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.31 -
$5.69
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.45
Resistance Level
$6.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.13
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.9%
Profit Margin
22.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.03
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$6.15
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$6.26
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.3%)
$21.69
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 22.3%)
$10.82
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 22.3%)
$9.20
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$10.97
(+84%)
Analyst growth 71.6%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$9.97
(+67%)
Market implied 71.6%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$3.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LYG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LYG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LYG price and gamma walls.
