Is M stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, M is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: M shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of M stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for M to be between $20.67 and $22.83. The current price is $20.02.

What is the analyst price target for M?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for M is $21.90. This implies a potential upside of 9.4% from current levels.

M Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

M - Macy's Inc.

RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES

$20.02

0.00 (0.00%) ▲

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your M Gains

Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Mar 05, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: M shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 1.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$24.15

Based on 2.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$15.00

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: M is currently trading at $20.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.67 to $22.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: M has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $20.67 - $22.83

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 52.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.90)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $20.67 - $22.83

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $19.80

Resistance Level $21.82

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.04

Wall Street Target $21.90 (+9.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -60.0%

Profit Margin 2.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 9.0 vs 9.6 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $19.64 (-2%)

2-Year Target $19.27 (-4%)

3-Year Target $18.90 (-6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→10) $20.06 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.2%) $51.08 (+155%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 1.2%) $20.72 (+4%)

Bear: (PE: 7.7, Growth: 1.2%) $17.61 (-12%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 11.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70

Bull Case $29.19 (+46%)

Analyst growth 30.2%, PE expands to 13.2

Base Case $26.53 (+33%)

Market implied 30.2%, PE stable at 12.0

Bear Case $13.86 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.6

Stabilization Target: $21.25 (+6.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +6.1%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is M showing a specific setup today?

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