M Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
M - Macy's Inc.
$17.58
-0.36 (-2.01%)
▼
5d:
-2.5%
30d:
-11.12%
90d:
-21.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 18, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
M is up 4.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $10 2026-06-18 with 5,306 OI. Put ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: M shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: M shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.42
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: M is currently trading at $17.58, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.27 to $20.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.69, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, M is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.69, while resistance sits at $18.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$17.27 -
$20.22
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.27 -
$20.22
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.69
Resistance Level
$18.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.22
Wall Street Target
$19.30
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.88
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.20
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$15.55
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -2.9%)
$43.78
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -2.9%)
$16.09
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -2.9%)
$13.68
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$24.74
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$22.49
(+25%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$12.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$19.90
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is M showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Danielle L Kirgan
SELL
85000 shares
2025-12-11
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