MBCN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBCN - Middlefield Banc Corp.
$33.54
0.31 (0.93%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MBCN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MBCN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.13
20.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBCN is currently trading at $33.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.90 to $35.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 124.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBCN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.47, while resistance sits at $36.52.
Market Sentiment: MBCN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBCN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.47, while resistance sits at $36.52.
Market Sentiment: MBCN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.90 -
$35.41
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MBCN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.90 -
$35.41
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.47
Resistance Level
$36.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.78
Wall Street Target
$33.67
(+1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
124.2%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.67
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$32.11
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$31.56
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$33.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 64.6%)
$59.11
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 64.6%)
$33.88
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 64.6%)
$28.80
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$38.64
(+16%)
Analyst growth -0.4%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$35.12
(+6%)
Market implied -0.4%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$23.98
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$34.84
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MBCN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MBCN price and gamma walls.
