MCK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCK - McKesson Corporation
$831.21
8.91 (1.08%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1379.85
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$856.78
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCK is currently trading at $831.21, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $819.48 to $832.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (20.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 377.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $807.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $942.00 (+14.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $807.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $942.00 (+14.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$819.48 -
$832.83
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MCK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($942.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$819.48 -
$832.83
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$32.74
(3.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$807.00
Resistance Level
$849.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.77
Wall Street Target
$942.00
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
377.0%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 20.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$793.52
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$765.75
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$738.95
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→21)
$822.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 13.2%)
$1418.78
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 13.2%)
$1194.35
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 13.2%)
$1015.19
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $31.99
Bull Case
$1245.08
(+50%)
Analyst growth 36.9%, PE expands to 28.4
Base Case
$1131.89
(+36%)
Market implied 36.9%, PE stable at 25.8
Bear Case
$562.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 20.9
Stabilization Target:
$915.50
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Val T. Hoyle
BUY
2025-09-10
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Advanced MCK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCK price and gamma walls.
