MCK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCK - McKesson Corporation
$884.28
11.96 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
-9.65%
90d:
+7.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MCK is down 4.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $920 2026-06-18 with 297 OI. Call ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1392.99
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$864.94
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCK is currently trading at $884.28, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $879.52 to $965.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $904.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $997.67 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $904.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $997.67 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$879.52 -
$965.03
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($997.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$879.52 -
$965.03
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$36.35
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$846.73
Resistance Level
$904.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.99
Wall Street Target
$997.67
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.0%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$871.90
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$859.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$847.66
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$881.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.4%)
$1325.22
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$1287.93
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 13.4%)
$1094.74
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $34.64
Bull Case
$1244.30
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.7%, PE expands to 28.1
Base Case
$1131.18
(+29%)
Market implied 27.7%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$602.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$920.06
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 12:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michele Lau
SELL
2725 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Maria Martinez
SELL
349 shares
2026-02-19
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Advanced MCK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCK price and gamma walls.
