MDB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDB - MongoDB, Inc. Class A
$249.36
4.59 (1.88%)
▲
5d:
+1.14%
30d:
-1.33%
90d:
-40.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
MDB is up 7.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $280 2026-04-17 with 1,188 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDB trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDB trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -15.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.20
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.01
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDB is currently trading at $249.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.58 to $323.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 43.7) compared to its historical average (73.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $230.01, while resistance sits at $279.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.41 (+42.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $230.01, while resistance sits at $279.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.41 (+42.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$248.58 -
$323.79
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.1% below Wall St target ($354.41)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$248.58 -
$323.79
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$230.01
Resistance Level
$279.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.74
Wall Street Target
$354.41
(+42.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
-2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.7 vs 73.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$224.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$201.98
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$181.78
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→74)
$305.49
(+23%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 43.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$417.79
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$213.50
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 18.8%)
$181.48
(-27%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.7 to 73.5
Stabilization Target:
$419.06
(+68.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+68.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dwight A Merriman
SELL
1190 shares
2026-02-02
Dwight A Merriman
SELL
1139 shares
2026-01-15
Dwight A Merriman
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-14
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Advanced MDB Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDB price and gamma walls.
