MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$102.96
1.96 (1.94%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.11
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.51
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $102.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.65 to $100.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$96.65 -
$100.56
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$96.65 -
$100.56
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$95.69
Resistance Level
$102.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.52
Wall Street Target
$110.20
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.90
(0%)
2-Year Target
$100.80
(0%)
3-Year Target
$100.70
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$101.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$172.45
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 8.1%)
$127.72
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 8.1%)
$108.56
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.69
Bull Case
$183.74
(+79%)
Analyst growth 65.7%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$167.04
(+62%)
Market implied 65.7%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$68.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$101.51
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Harry Skip Kiil
SELL
8605 shares
2025-09-03
William R Jellison
BUY
2500 shares
2025-08-25
William R Jellison
BUY
2500 shares
2025-08-22
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