MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$86.06
-0.59 (-0.68%)
▼
5d:
-2.08%
30d:
-11.01%
90d:
-10.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MDT is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-05-15 with 3,656 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.61
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.48
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $86.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.19 to $95.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.08 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $84.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.08 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$86.19 -
$95.06
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.1% below Wall St target ($111.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.19 -
$95.06
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.92
Resistance Level
$89.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.21
Wall Street Target
$111.08
(+29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.70
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$79.48
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$76.38
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$86.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$170.42
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$108.36
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 8.0%)
$92.11
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$161.32
(+85%)
Analyst growth 70.2%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$146.65
(+68%)
Market implied 70.2%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$58.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$96.90
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Harry Skip Kiil
SELL
52524 shares
2026-02-19
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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Advanced MDT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
