MFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFC - Manulife Financial Corp.
$38.11
-0.44 (-1.14%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.31
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFC is currently trading at $38.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.50 to $37.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.87. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $32.87. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$36.50 -
$37.55
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MFC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.7% above Wall St target ($32.87)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.50 -
$37.55
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.31
Resistance Level
$38.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.49
Wall Street Target
$32.87
(-14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.28
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$40.03
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$40.79
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$132.76
(+244%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 9.5%)
$50.55
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 9.5%)
$42.97
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.29
Bull Case
$82.26
(+116%)
Analyst growth 98.3%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$74.78
(+96%)
Market implied 98.3%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$25.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MFC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MFC price and gamma walls.
