MFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFG - Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. American Depositary Shares (Each representing one-fifth of an Ordinary Share)
$8.63
-0.01 (-0.12%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFG is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MFG is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.45
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.35
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFG is currently trading at $8.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.51 to $8.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$7.51 -
$8.53
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
MFG is technically overbought (RSI 74). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($8.13)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.51 -
$8.53
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.29
Resistance Level
$8.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.92
Wall Street Target
$8.13
(-5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.9%
Profit Margin
25.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.76
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$8.82
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.67
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.4%)
$22.89
(+165%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$13.26
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 15.4%)
$11.27
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$11.98
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$10.89
(+26%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$5.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MFG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MFG price and gamma walls.
