MGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGM - MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL
$36.68
-0.10 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-2.37%
30d:
+0.0%
90d:
+0.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
MGM is up 3.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $29 2026-04-17 with 648 OI. Put ratio: 67% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.96
Based on 13.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.82
14.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGM is currently trading at $36.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.50 to $37.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.20, while resistance sits at $37.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.67 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.20, while resistance sits at $37.97.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.67 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$35.50 -
$37.16
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.50 -
$37.16
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.20
Resistance Level
$37.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.65
Wall Street Target
$42.67
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.7%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.83
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$36.97
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$37.12
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 23.8%)
$91.34
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 23.8%)
$69.51
(+90%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 23.8%)
$59.09
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$77.81
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$70.74
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.5
Bear Case
$24.05
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
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Advanced MGM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MGM price and gamma walls.
