MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$24.91
-0.20 (-0.80%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.72
Based on -0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $24.91, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.11 to $24.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.05, while resistance sits at $25.93.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.80 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $23.05, while resistance sits at $25.93.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.80 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$24.11 -
$24.97
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.7% below Wall St target ($34.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -18.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.11 -
$24.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.87
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.05
Resistance Level
$25.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.76
Wall Street Target
$34.80
(+39.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-2.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.41
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$25.92
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$26.43
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$48.48
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -5.2%)
$21.22
(-15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -5.2%)
$18.04
(-28%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-25
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Advanced MGPI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MGPI price and gamma walls.
