MGPI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MGPI - MGP Ingredients Inc
$18.34
-0.05 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-1.56%
30d:
-0.92%
90d:
-24.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MGPI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.97
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MGPI is currently trading at $18.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.72 to $20.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.45, while resistance sits at $19.25.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+57.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MGPI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.45, while resistance sits at $19.25.
Market Sentiment: MGPI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.80 (+57.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$16.72 -
$20.84
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.0% below Wall St target ($28.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.72 -
$20.84
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.36
(7.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.45
Resistance Level
$19.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.98
Wall Street Target
$28.80
(+57.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-23.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.6%
Profit Margin
-20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.14
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.94
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$17.74
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$18.38
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 28.6%)
$97.13
(+430%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 28.6%)
$39.02
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 28.6%)
$33.17
(+81%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$19.00
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MGPI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Karen Seaberg
SELL
81616 shares
2025-12-10
Karen Seaberg
SELL
181095 shares
2025-12-09
Karen Seaberg
SELL
41824 shares
2025-12-08
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