NBHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBHC - NATIONAL BANK HOLDINGS CORP.
$40.18
0.21 (0.53%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NBHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NBHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.12
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBHC is currently trading at $40.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.72 to $40.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.65, while resistance sits at $42.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.65, while resistance sits at $42.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$38.72 -
$40.75
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.72 -
$40.75
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.65
Resistance Level
$42.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.89
Wall Street Target
$46.25
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-41.7%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.93
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$37.92
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$36.93
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$39.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.8%)
$125.75
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 11.8%)
$55.79
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$47.42
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$56.23
(+40%)
Analyst growth 28.3%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$51.12
(+27%)
Market implied 28.3%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$27.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$43.23
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NBHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NBHC price and gamma walls.